Prediction? Pain.

*edit* This post, begun on August 5th and not finished until today may appear to be a rough bit of 'piling on' or 'givin' Indycar the bizness', after all the hoopla surrounding Race Control's call at the end of the MoveThatBlock.com 225 yesterday.  I assure you the negative tone of this rant was set following the announcement that the all-new 2009 chassis (which became the 2010 ICONIC competition) became the 2011 safety-cell chassis with aero kits, to be introduced in 2012, is now slated for 2013.  I will admit my tone is enhanced by Sunday's double-birds and officiating hubris and 'best justice available'...

Recently a blog commentor, anotherindycarblog, noted some of my off-season thoughts of November 2009, several of which almost resemble something akin to prophecy.  Emboldened by my newfound clairvoyance, I again put it 'out there' for the world to digest.


There's a big ole bunch of Indycar badness headed our way. The size, strength, and threat of this badness reminds me of that fierce antagonist, Clubber Lang from Rocky III. Like Rocky Balboa, the current Indycar lives fairly comfortably on past success and we may or may not know the threat is even there, because our handlers (aka Indycar governors) will be coddling us, shielding us from harm, keeping us 'safe' from the very thing they fear, but what Rocky really wants... competition. 


So with no further delay, I give everyone the 'Tale of the Tape' for Indycar 2012 and beyond... (*hint* I pity the fools).

Rocky Balboa (Pro):

2012:

- The newest chassis debuts and elicits an overall positive response from fans.
- The new engines are well-received by fans and especially noticeable will be the turbo whine, maximized for the at-race fan's enjoyment.
- Two historic ovals not on the 2011 race schedule come on board to fans' delight.
- Two road/streets on the 2011 schedule DON'T come back to fans' delight.
- The Indy 500 TV ratings are higher than they've been in 18 years, largely due to the added hype of the 2012 chassis, Danica's return to Indycar for her one-off, and increased speeds at Indy which will approach the upper 230s during the month of May. The enthusiasm follows to the next several races as all of them enjoy double-digit increases in TV viewership and Ticket sales.

2013:

- by early 2013, we will have exactly three different manufacturers of aero kits for the 2012 chassis, which will be ballyhooed by what remains of Indycar's PR machine.
- by late 2012, a third engine manufacturer will be testing adding a bit of momentum for the spring of 2013.

Clubber Lang (Con):

2012: 

- Danica leaves for NASCARland and things get seriously rainbows and kittens for her financial and retirement portfolio, in addition to finding that she actually prefers the slab-sided vehicles to the Indycar. Fans embrace her there and NASCAR's popularity, judged by most common measures gets a double-digit uptick. NASCAR's gain, Indycar's loss once again.
- Nothing will change the presence of the 'ride-buyer', although part-time driving schedules will lead to even less success than in the 'UberSpec' 2003-2011 era.
- Barnhardt will remain in the Race Control supervising tech, but Indycar will shuffle in a new race steward who will fare little better as race referee, despite a much ballyhooed nomination to the post. More disillusionment with the leadership of Indycar ensues.
- The 78% of Indycar fans who aren't on Twitter (and thereby don't follow @pressdog or @oilpressureblog or @SBPopOffValve) will only now realize all the 2012 chassis are all EXACTLY THE SAME, question the absence of different chassis, and become disenfranchised (AGAIN) with Indycar's governing ineptness. This group fractures into people who; begin watching WRC online, or foster their newfound interest in ALMS, largely due to the shockingly incredible performance at 24 Hours of LeMans by that Delta Wing thingy (Hey, why didn't we get that thing for Indycar?).
- The 2012 motors, despite their well-received sound will all prove somewhat inconsistently-powered and somewhat unreliable. Fans of 'three cars on the lead lap at midway' or of 'late-race motor-blowing which induces violent race standings shuffles' will rejoice. Owners of said motors will not and publicly lament the loss of the yawn-inducing reliability of the Honda V8, (much to the dismay of Indycar PR).

2013:

- the two additional manufacturers of 2013 aero kits finally enter the Indycar stage but will all look so amazingly similar that it triggers a violent and palpable *ker-THUNK* as ICONIC's decision for aero kits coupled with the Indycar owner-induced delay falls tremendously flat with nearly all Indycar fans. Many longtime fans will shake their heads and consider this the final-FINAL straw and leave for good.
- After numerous 'lead balloon' decisions and the Centennial Era a fading memory, Indycar is in a delicate state left with fewer fans than in 2011, a fractured TV coverage package, declining ratings, and a CEO teetering with his sport on the brink of total collapse...  Very hard decisions must be made... 


To continue to fight or retire? 

"...you come in here with a skull full of mush and, if you survive, will leave thinking like an Indycar fan."

So so SOOOO often I get asked by my friends (who aren't yet Indycar fans) what are seemingly elementary questions about Indycars and the Indy 500. Things like, "Indycar... what exactly is that? Is that like NASCAR?" or, "Whaddya mean by open wheels?" or, "Isn't the Indy 500 just a big party? You go every year right? (implying that I can't pass on a big party which, while fairly accurate, in this case is missing the point). 


It forces me into a frame of reference that I haven't been since roughly the turn of the decade - the 80s decade, that is, when I first began approaching Indycar as a fan.  

I also must resist rapidly morphing into some aghast, codger-like visage of Houseman's Professor Kingsfield from "The Paper Chase" (a quote from which this post's title is paraphrased) and try to see Indycar through fresh eyes. My sometimes inquisitive kids also aid in this.


One thing I've noted is that we Indycar stalwarts (are there any other kind?) can be perceived as a very insulated, exclusive, micro-focused bunch approaching racing nerddom.  So when I get that seemingly elementary question from an Indycar 'Outsider', I must remember that it's all-new to someone and I will try hard to determine what depth of answer will lose them and develop an answer just short of that, because my goal has always been to maintain their interest in Indycar, no matter how shallow, and provide as informative an answer as possible. 


But also, after years of losing many people with amateur answers that regale the history and intricacies and dramas of Indycar, I have now determined one simple answer seems to to be about the only true and best advice I can give anyone who wants to know more about Indycar: 

"You just have to go see it." 

It's still my favorite way (by far) to experience it. TV rarely does the experience justice, the great crew with IMS Radio at the Indy 500 does a great job of communicating the excitement, but when I'm fortunate enough to be present when they fire up the engines, it's still a goosebump moment... everytime. Anticipation, sights, sounds, smells, vibrations through the ground all culminate in one overwhelming experience and the closer you are, the more amazing it is. 


So do yourself a favor. Go see a race and don't fail to take a friend who has never seen an Indycar race before. I've done it now for 8 years running to the Indy 500 and while, to an Indycar codger like me, it may seem their auto racing brain is full of mush, they also may just leave a fan.

Missed It By THAT Much...

As the cloud of excitement and ethanol and rubber and sunburn fades into memory, I can say without question that the 2011 Indy 500 was among the best 10% of races.  The last 35 laps were nothing short of classic sporting drama and, as Steph at More Front Wing so eloquently stated, without the information fed by a scanner or TV coverage, one never knew where all the players stood with regard to fuel, speed, and handling which made the closing laps all the more exciting to watch from the stands and every few laps of the closing 15 presented a new leader.

I must admit to feeling fairly clairvoyant with regard to the race winner predictions 6 days prior to the race. I then noted a predilection for the winner to be from a one-off team overcoming the day's dominance of team Target (who would befall some late-race misfortune) and win his second Indy 500 ring...  Sound vaguely familiar?  Where the prediction misses the mark is which one-off driver would win. I had Buddy Rice but history would show Dan Wheldon to be that driver in Victory Circle.

My Top 10 was a bit off, but still the overall theme was nearly right on. As for the weekend and raceday enjoyment, it was nearly unparalleled in the 24 different races I've been ('79, '80, '88-'96, '99-current).  Definitely in the Top 5 of races I've witnessed first-hand with 1992, 1979 (my first), 2006, and 1989.

Time will tell just how important this race was, but with the fantastic weather, pomp and circumstance on '11', complete stadium silence at Taps, our good friend Mister Jim Nabors, exciting racing with a finish to be long-remembered, it certainly has all the hallmarks of one of the greats.

We can also take a deep breath, and begin to look forward. 

Only 360 days to the Indy 500...